The 2020s are set to be Asia’s decade, with the continent dominating an exclusive list of economies that are expected to sustain growth rates of around 7 per cent.
India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Philippines and Myanmar should all meet that benchmark, according to a research note from Global Chief Economist David Mann and Madhur Jha, Standard Chartered’s India-based head of thematic research. Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia are also likely to reach the 7 per cent growth pace, which essentially means a doubling of gross domestic product every tens years. That will be a boon to per-capita incomes, with Vietnam’s soaring to $10,400 in 2030 from what it was during last year- $2,500, they estimate.
South Asian members of the group should be the GDP standouts as they will together account for about 1/5th of the world’s population by 2030, Standard Chartered reckons. The demographic dividend will be a big boon for India, while Bangladesh’s investments in education and health should juice productivity.
The Asian dominance of the list is a big change from 2010. When the bank first started tracking the economies it was expected to grow by around 7 per cent. At that time, there were 10 members evenly split between Asia and Africa: India, Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nigeria, Uganda and Mozambique.
China is a notable absence from the latest ranking especially considering that it has been a member of the club for almost 4 decades — reflecting a slowdown in economic growth as well as a progression toward higher per-capita incomes that makes faster growth rates much more difficult to sustain. Standard Chartered estimates that the world’s No. 2 economy would be able to keep up a 5.5 per cent economic growth pace in the 2020s.